Grey System Theory: A Categorical Imperative to Predicting Nigerian’s Population Birth Number

L. Imaekhai

L. Imaekhai Ambrose Alli University, Ekpoma

Keywords: Forecasting techniques, Grey generation, Grey system theory, Modeling, Population estimation

Abstract

The trend of having few children in families has become imperative in Nigeria, which will tend to moderate the total school enrolment across all levels in the future but may tend to stabilize the existing trend of enrolment due to quest for western education as against the usual practice. This will create adjustment in learning capacity accordingly so as to receive the best enrolment result. The paper utilizes the “Grey System theory” as a forecasting principle and process to estimate the number of births in Nigeria in 2017, thereby verifying the gap between anticipated results and real data. The Grey system theory application involves, the grey generation, followed by grey modeling to generate predictive models. The results showed that the estimated Nigeria’s population birth number exceeds 200,000 people in the year 2017. Nevertheless, a slight variation of the projected results from the real birth data, suggests a trend of decline in Nigeria’s population birth number in the future years.

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